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SUNDAY,  OCTOBER 26,  2008

ONE HEARTBEAT AWAY

Posted at 11:38 p.m. ET

Most stories with that title have, during this bizarre campaign, been about Sarah Palin.   We've been assured by certain journalists that she has no qualifications at all to serve as vice president, president, or even human being.  Why, there has never been anyone so low.

But where are the stories about Joe Biden?  Have you seen a single story question a single vote he's cast in the Senate?  Has anyone noticed, during this financial crisis, that he represents Delaware, known as the headquarters of many major financial institutions?  Any interest in his relationship with them, or how that relationship has been nurtured?

Well, finally, a real newspaper, The Washington Times, has printed an analysis of Biden's years in the Senate.  And now we can understand why the liberal media don't want to go anywhere near this?

The conduct of our foreign relations and the command of our military are among the most important functions entrusted to the president under our Constitution, and Mr. Biden's record in these areas is abysmal. From his first year in the Senate in 1973, he was a consistent foe of the American military.

Nice to know that.  Where else is it being printed?

When the Armed Services Committee recommended money for the Trident submarine, the B-1 bomber, and the MX missile (three critical upgrades to our strategic nuclear deterrent triad), Mr. Biden voted against all three - as well as against every effort by our military to protect the American people against nuclear missile attack. When the Senate voted to provide our troops with superior equipment like the M-1 Abrams tank, Joe Biden regularly voted "nay." He even voted to make all covert operations illegal (and to prohibit all intelligence collection inside foreign countries where local laws prohibited foreign espionage) and in 1986 bragged he had personally undermined Reagan administration covert operations while a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee by simply threatening to "leak" them.

Nice, huh?  This is the "qualified" candidate for vice president.

A look at his actions when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 is instructive...

...He declared the United States "must act, and we must act forcefully. ... History will not forgive us if we do not do everything in our power to stop Saddam Hussein."

Two months later, his courage had apparently waned, as Mr. Biden cautioned that the United States should not engage in a "pre-emptive strike."

And it gets worse:

As for his earlier concerns about Saddam's quest for nuclear weapons and Iraq's other weapons of mass destruction programs, Mr. Biden actually speculated to his colleagues that perhaps, if we just left him alone for five years, Saddam might be "struck by lightning," eliminating any need to deal seriously with the problem. Thus we have the "Biden Doctrine" - gut the military, appease aggressors, and then pray anxiously for lightning to preserve world peace!

It's probably the most coherent piece of thinking Joe ever came up with.

When Desert Storm began, Iraq had the third-largest army in the world (the United States was fifth). Without the critically important weapons Mr. Biden had sought to deny our troops, we might well have paid for his frugality with the lives of large numbers of brave American men and women in uniform.

He would have just blamed BUSH (!) - the first Bush.

Apparently having learned from experience, in 2002 Mr. Biden voted in favor of going to war in Iraq. (As late as April 2003, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported 79 percent of Americans still thought the Iraq war was justified). But when public opinion shifted, Mr. Biden quickly reverted to form, declared his vote was a "mistake," and tried to sabotage the president's conduct of the war (and thus guarantee victory for our enemies, as he had done in Indochina in May 1973).

This admission probably endeared him to The One.

Today, few Senate Democrats can match Joe Biden's experience in the field of foreign affairs. He has a long track record dating back 35 years - a record Mr. Obama obviously admires. But it is a record of appeasement, weakness, vacillation and incredibly poor judgment. It is a record of usurping the constitutional powers of the president, undermining and trying to cripple our intelligence community, and in the process betraying the brave sacrifices of millions of our men and women in uniform. I have testified at hearings chaired by Mr. Biden time and again over many years, and I've always found him fair, gracious, and often charming and personable. But the thought that his views may soon become the foreign and defense policies of this great nation genuinely frightens me.

Should frighten all of us.

October 26, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 3:45 P.M. ET:   The IBD/TIPP tracker has Obama up between three and four points, a slight gain for McCain since yesterday.  This poll was the most accurate in 2004, but currently shows the smallest lead for Obama among major polls.  (Battleground has Obama at three, but hasn't published since Friday.)

UPDATE AT 2:01 P.M. ET:  Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government in Israel, and the country will probably have to go to new elections in February.  Hardliner and former Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is the favorite.  There are leftists around Obama who would dream of using Netanyahu's views to cause a split with Israel, and Obama himself has expressed disapproval of Bibi's party.  But a Netanyahu victory could help the United States by driving home the factual realities of the Middle East, which Bibi understands and Obama does not.  Bibi is not popular along the Washington diplomatic circuit, which probably means he has common sense.

UPDATE AT 1:44 P.M. ET:  New trackers are out, but don't offer any encouragement.  As we suspected, the Zogby finding of a sudden surge for McCain is not supported by any other poll.  Hotline has Obama up eight, a gain of one.  Battleground doesn't publish on weekends.  Gallup's "traditional" methodology has Obama up five, a loss of two.  But their "expanded" model, taking into account likely new voters, has Obama up nine, a gain of one.   

UPDATE AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen reports Obama up eight, same as yesterday.  Clearly, he does not see the trend toward McCain that Zogby reported.  Much as I regret the numbers, I'd trust Rasmussen.

REQUIEM, OR NEW BEGINNING?

Posted at 9:27 a.m. ET

That is the question we must ask.  Is this next week and a half the end of the conservative era, or can we plant the seeds of a new beginning?  That choice is up to us.  If we see it as the end, we are unworthy, and next to useless.  But if we see this time of testing as a new beginning, we can be true to our principles and build again. 

I have no doubt that some will jump ship.  We're already seeing that.  Don't despair.  It always happens.  Harry Truman saw more ship jumpers than any president in modern history, and survived.  Now he is seen as a giant, and the ship numbers are footnotes to footnotes.

In the last week I've noticed a change in the tone of writers on our side.  They've become more grim, to be sure, but also more coherent.  They are starting to make the arguments, and ask the questions, that are necessary for our return to triumph.  Here, for example, is Mark Steyn:

I agree with Thomas Sowell that an Obama-Pelosi supermajority will mark what he calls “a point of no return”. It would not be, as some naysayers scoff, “Jimmy Carter’s second term”, but something far more transformative. The new president would front the fourth great wave of liberal annexation — the first being FDR’s New Deal, the second LBJ’s Great Society, and the third the incremental but remorseless cultural advance when Reagan conservatives began winning victories at the ballot box and liberals turned their attention to the other levers of the society, from grade school up. The terrorist educator William Ayers, Obama’s patron in Chicago, is an exemplar of the last model: forty years ago, he was in favor of blowing up public buildings; then he figured out it was easier to get inside and undermine them from within.

All three liberal waves have transformed American expectations of the state. The spirit of the age is: Ask not what your country can do for you, demand it. Why can’t the government sort out my health care? Why can’t they pick up my mortgage?

Well put.  The key point here is that we have allowed the left to infiltrate into, and to dominate, key opinion-producing sectors of society, especially the educational system.  We have to learn that what happens in "your house" is more important than what happens in the White House.

A vote for an Obama-Pelosi-Barney Frank-ACORN supermajority is a vote for a Europeanized domestic policy that is, as the eco-types like to say, “unsustainable."

Correct.  At the same time, we must not be indifferent to real outrages that occur in society.  We've just seen some in the governance of financial institutions.  Being for free enterprise doesn't mean turning a blind eye to reckless or irresponsible practices.  Even Milton Friedman insisted on the enforcement of antitrust laws. 

“People of the world,” declared Senator Obama sonorously at his self-worship service in Germany, “look at Berlin, where a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one.”

No, sorry. History proved no such thing. In the Cold War, the world did not stand as one. One half of Europe was a prison, and in the other half far too many people — the Barack Obamas of the day — were happy to go along with that division in perpetuity. And the wall came down not because “the world stood as one” but because a few courageous people stood against the conventional wisdom of the day. Had Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan been like Helmut Schmidt and Francois Mitterand and Pierre Trudeau and Jimmy Carter, the Soviet empire (notwithstanding its own incompetence) would have survived and the wall would still be standing. Senator Obama’s feeble passivity will get you a big round of applause precisely because it’s the easy option: Do nothing but hold hands and sing the easy listening anthems of one-worldism, and the planet will heal.

That is correct.  One of the great myths is that the Soviet Union would have collapsed on its own, with out the Reagan-Thatcher-John Paul II push. 

The world rarely stands as one. You can, as Reagan and Thatcher did, stand up. Or, like Obama voting “present”, you can stand down.

Nobody denies that, in promoting himself from “community organizer” to the world’s President-designate in nothing flat, he has shown an amazing and impressively ruthless single-mindedness. But the path of personal glory has been, in terms of policy and philosophy, the path of least resistance.

Also correct.  I find it remarkable that, after the longest campaign in presidential history, we still have no clear picture of what Barack Obama believes, if he believes anything.  And virtually any probing questions are ruled off limits. 

An Obama Administration will pitch America toward EU domestic policy and UN foreign policy. Thomas Sowell is right: It would be a “point of no return," the most explicit repudiation of the animating principles of America. For a vigilant republic of limited government and self-reliant citizens, it would be a Declaration of Dependence.

If a majority of Americans want that, we holdouts must respect their choice. But, if you don’t want it, vote accordingly.

That's better than the Notre Dame fight song.  Steyn is really saying what Colin Powell was saying, that Obama can be a transformational figure.  The problem is the transformation being planned for us.  Steyn is correct in saying it would be a repudiation of the great principles of America.  It would be the creation of a European-style gray society, where the whole notion of excellence, eccentricity or brilliance would be considered quaint and even dangerous. 

We fight.

October 26, 2008.       Permalink           

UPDATE AT 8:33 A.M. ET:   The Obama campaign has cut off Florida TV station WFTV from further cooperation during the campaign because one of its anchorwomen had the temerity to ask tough questions of Joe Biden.  Apparently, a reporter is not permitted to challenge The One, or now, even The Little One.  Let's see if this small station gets any support from the major media.  Don't hold your breath. 

UPDATE AT 8:24 A.M. ET:  Zogby, whose work remains problematical in my view, today has Obama up only five, down from nine yesterday.  It was 12 a bit earlier in the week.  Zogby says, "Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.

COMMENT:  I just don't know.  These are pretty wild swings, and I haven't seen anything dramatic on the economy from McCain. Let's see if this "trending back" is reflected in other polls later today.  My guess is that it won't be, but we can hope.

SATURDAY,  OCTOBER 25,  2008

NOTE AT 7:06 P.M. ET:  This is wonderful.  It's by way of Lisa Schiffren at NRO:

So, Sarah Palin's advisors decide that it is time for her to meet a bunch of serious world leaders. They head to Europe, where, first up, she has an appointment with the Pope. The Pope and some of his Cardinals invite her for a boat ride on the Tiber. As they are sitting in the gondola talking, a wind starts up and blows the Pope's hat into the water. Palin looks around and realizes that no one is going to do anything about it, so she calmy rises, takes off her her high heels, and steps off the side of the boat. Instead of diving into the water, however, she walks across it, to the hat, picks it up and walks back across the water to the boat. She climbs in, hands the Pope his hat and continues discussing whatever it was they had been talking about. The Cardinals are open mouthed in astonishment at what they have just seen. The news media, in nearby boats are busy discussing among themselves how to report it. Headlines the next day at the New York Times, The Washington Post and the networks all blare: "New Revelation: Sarah Palin Can't Swim."

Then they'd question whether the swimming credit on her high-school transcript is valid.  Major investigation. 

UPDATE AT 6:43 P.M. ET:  IBD/TIPP trackers has Obama up four, same as yesterday.  We don't know which polls, if any, are accurate.  If Obama's lead is only four, it's doable for McCain.  If it's 14, that's another story.  It's such a mysterious year, with so many variables.

UPDATE AT 3:30 P.M. ET:  Several media outlets, in the U.S. and in the Middle East, are reporting that President Bush will restore diplomatic relations with Iran after 29 years of non-relations.  He will wait until after the election, according to these reports.

COMMENT:  This is in response to Iranian cooperation in...?  The problems with this move are that 1) it would confirm the dominance of the State Department and the Bush 41 crowd in the last years of the Bush 43 presidency, 2) it rewards Iran for its utter obstinacy, especially on the nuclear issue, and, most important, 3) it effectively takes the military option off the table.  We can't very well use military force when our diplomats will either be killed or taken hostage.  We recall the Iran hostage crisis of 1979-80-81.  Nothing has been officially announced.  We will wait, with some concern over whether this is some kind of wise strategic move, or another try by Condi for a "legacy."  Never underestimate the role of the personal and the egotistical in political affairs. 

UPDATE AT 3:05 P.M. ET:  You don't believe in political miracles, you say?  Well, try this one on:  The rigidly liberal Minneapolis Star-Tribune, legendarily out in left field, is endorsing Republican Senator Norm Coleman for reelection over comedian Al Franken, the Democrat.  You can read the endorsement here.  Sometimes people just surprise us.  Congratulations to the Strib for a splendid decision.

UPDATE AT 2:46 P.M. ET:  The polling news is not presented with pleasure.  Using its traditional measurements, Gallup gives Obama a seven-point lead.  Using its expanded model, the lead is eight points.  The figures were five and seven yesterday.  Hotline has Obama up seven, same as yesterday. 

COMMENT:  There is just no evidence of the race tightening, as it normally does as election day approaches.  But there are ten days left, a lifetime in politics.  McCain could probably not have had worse conditions for a political campaign, and worse behavior from the press.  Let's cheer the man on. 
 

NOTE AT 9:43 A.M. ET:   From The Hollywood Reporter:   As campaign managers for Sarah Palin plot last-minute tactics to get her elected, Hollywood bigwigs are convening strategy sessions of their own. Their goal: finding the ideal on-air vehicle for the vp candidate if and when she exits politics.  Love her or hate her -- there doesn't seem to be much middle ground with Palin -- the 44-year-old hockey mom has captured the public imagination in a way no politician has since, well, Barack Obama.

COMMENT:  I wouldn't underestimate this, and it doesn't have to wait until she leaves politics.  A sitting governor, a national figure, with her own talk or news show, could give her an incredible platform...and she has a built-in audience.  Why not?

UPDATE AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen, just out, has Obama up eight, 52-44, a gain of one since yesterday.  This matches Obama's biggest previous lead of the year.   

OBAMA DANGER

Posted at 8:31 a.m. ET

I've noticed an increasing number of very thoughtful pieces warning of the danger of an Obama presidency.  As the days dwindle down to the election, there does seem to be a growing number of writers trying to reach the American people with a picture of what life will be like in the age of Obama.  One of the best of these writers is Mark Moyar.  You might not know the name.  Moyar is a distinguished American historian whose career has been short-circuited by his refusal to toe the approved line on Vietnam.  The first volume of his history of that war is out, titled "Triumph Forsaken:  The Vietnam War, 1954-1965."  The title tells you why Moyar, a Harvard graduate and Cambridge Ph.D., is anathema to our academic class. 

Writing in NRO, Moyar says:

His name was Jimmy Carter, the year was 1976, and he won. His presidency helps us predict the likely results of an Obama victory in 2008.

Chilled already?

Carter and the Democratic Congress generated 18 percent inflation and economic stagnation at the same time. Unemployment rose. Americans came to regret the votes they had cast — Carter’s approval rating sank to 21 percent in 1980, the lowest in the history of polling.

Carter also threw out his professed hawkishness on foreign policy. Declaring America liberated from its “inordinate fear of Communism,” he sought better relations with the Communists in the Soviet Union, China, Cuba, and Vietnam. He was much less nice to America’s allies, withdrawing support from those who did not accept his self-righteous demands for human-rights reforms. Friendly regimes in Nicaragua and Iran fell to hostile tyrants.

Ah yes, I remember it well.

If Obama abandons his promises the way Carter did, his presidency will be even more dangerous. Carter at least had longstanding tendencies toward fiscal restraint, and he, together with a large block of conservative Democrats in Congress, prevented the most left-wing elements of Congress from taxing and spending even more. Obama, on the other hand, has himself been part of the most left-wing element in the U.S. Senate, and conservatives do not have a significant presence on the Democratic side of the Reid-Pelosi Congress. Also, Obama has no history of breaking with his party before this year.

And...

There are reasons to believe Obama will indeed break his promises. In March, he told the American public he would force Canada and Mexico to make concessions on NAFTA. Obama’s senior economic adviser privately assured Canadian officials that Obama’s public promises were “more reflective of political maneuvering than policy.”

Nice, huh?  And there's more:

In the second presidential debate, Obama made the most flagrant of his bogus promises yet, when he announced a “net spending cut.” The National Taxpayers Union has estimated that Obama will actually produce a net spending increase of at least $292 billion per year.

And...

Also during the third debate, Obama distanced himself from ACORN, denying any involvement with this organization since 1995. But as Sen. McCain pointed out, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an ACORN subsidiary earlier this year.

The worst part:

Perhaps most incriminating of all is Joe Biden’s Seattle speech. In words that received less media attention than the “international testing” remarks, Biden asserted that an Obama administration would make unpopular decisions, because “if they're popular, they’re probably not sound.” As a consequence, “You all are going to be sitting here a year from now going, ‘Oh my God, why are they there in the polls, why is the polling so down?’” In other words, Obama’s poll numbers will fall once Americans learn that his popular promises of 2008 have been supplanted in 2009 by actions that most Americans oppose.

We'll be told it's Obama's brilliant mind at work.  Something we proletarians could never possibly understand.  We accept that, don't we?

Finally...

The odds of Obama staying true to his current rhetoric are so poor that not even the boldest gambler should bet on it.

The problem is the number - 10 days to go.  We have to hope that the polls are wrong and that the race is much tighter than we're being told.  We have to hope there won't be any more convenient convulsions - like the economic meltdown - in the last week, that would secure an Obama win.  And we have to hope that McCain can finally break through the media screen.

Much to hope for.  But miracles happen in politics.

October 25, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:58 A.M. ET:  Dick Morris, on Fox last night, said that the chances of a McCain upset are there, but depend heavily on the stock market.  If we have a quiet week, McCain might gain, based on his economic message.  But if the market continues to plunge, Morris said, McCain won't gain traction because voters' attention will be diverted.

COMMENT:  Morris noted that this is the first election since 1944 where the election was not the main story.  In 1944 it was World War II.  Now it's the economy.

UPDATE AT 7:56 A.M. ET:  Zogby, who had Obama up by as much as 12 late in the week, now has him up 9.  Race tightening, or some pollster drama?  I have no idea.  I wouldn't bet the farm on Zogby polls.

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